Week 5 NFL betting, odds: Bears are favorites against Packers at Lambeau Field for 1st time in 20 years

Posted by Admin October 5, 2026 NFL

The Chicago Bears moved to 3-1 on the season with a dominant 23-12 win at Soldier Field over the New York Jets on Sunday. The Bears had a remarkable 34 first downs (to the Jets’ seven) and 492 yards of total offense to New York’s 157.

The Green Bay Packers improved to 2-2 on the season with a far less impressive 17-14 road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and rookie QB Jalon Daniels. Respected money came in on Tampa Bay to push the line down to Packers -2.5, so Green Bay ended up covering the closing line. That was the Packers’ first win against the spread this season.

Chicago heads to Green Bay in Week 5 and the Bears were a 2.5-point favorite at sportsbooks on Monday morning. Why is this notable?

Because if the line holds, it would be the first time that the Bears have been a favorite at Lambeau Field in over 20 years.

Yes, the last time that Chicago walked into Green Bay as a favorite was back on Sept. 10, 2006 — Week 1 of that season — when the Bears closed as a 3.5-point favorite. Chicago won that game 26-0 thanks to 262 passing yards from Rex Grossman, two Brett Favre interceptions and a Packers lost fumble. That season ended for the Bears in the Super Bowl — a 29-17 loss to Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

The Bears are 3-1 against the spread this season, and have won games straight-up and ATS with Caleb Williams, Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent starting.

Williams was ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Jets, but his status for Week 5 is unknown. He suffered a Grade 2 hamstring injury against the Minnesota Vikings in a Week 2 loss, and potentially could return in this contest.

According to one oddsmaker, the line represents a middle ground due to Williams’ questionable playing status.

The oddsmaker texted Yahoo Sports on Monday morning: “It’s an in-betweener. The line will move in the Bears’ direction if he’s in. If he’s ruled out, it’ll move towards the Packers. So, the line is him questionable. Green Bay has looked bad, so [we’d move to] either pick-em or Green Bay -1 if he’s out.”

Oddsmakers had Williams as 4.84 points more valuable against the spread than Bagent prior to the season. The Packers were a three-point home favorite this offseason in the lookahead lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

It will be an interesting storyline to follow as we approach next Sunday’s games.