Two years ago, the thought of the Chicago Bears being favored at Lambeau Field was hard to believe. Being favored with a backup quarterback was unfathomable.

But not only are the Bears favored with Tyson Bagent, it’s hard to make a case for the Packers being the right pick.

Everything has changed in the NFL’s oldest and most heated rivalry. Ben Johnson showed up in Chicago before last season with a confidence that belied the Bears’ recent records. He called out the Packers and Matt LaFleur specifically. Then he has backed it up. The Bears are 14-7 since he arrived. They had a great comeback win against the Packers late in the regular season a year ago and a much more memorable comeback win over them in the playoffs. LaFleur is now getting constant heat from Packers fans and those losses to the Bears are a big part of it.

LaFleur is also taking plenty of blame for the Packers’ malaise since Micah Parsons got hurt late last season. Counting that game in Denver when Parsons tore his ACL, the Packers are 2-7 since. This season they look like a mess. The offensive line has been terrible in pass protection and isn’t opening lanes for the running game. Green Bay can’t run the ball; the Packers have 232 rushing yards, which is 65 fewer than any other team. They’re one of two teams with no rushing touchdowns. The defense is 24th in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed as well. Nothing is good.

And yet, the Bears are favored by less than a field goal. Perhaps it’s because Bagent was good but not great last week in his first start of the season. But the Bears ran the ball very well and dominated the Jets. The week before that they dominated the Eagles with Case Keenum at quarterback. The Bears haven’t been a road favorite at Green Bay in 20 years. But it makes complete sense this week.

Nothing is a lock in the NFL, especially when dealing with desperate teams, playoff revenge and rivalries. But it’s hard to make any logical argument why the Packers can beat the Bears on Sunday. Bears -2.5 is the pick. And if that happens, it’ll get even noisier around LaFleur.

Check out more of our favorite picks against the spread for Week 5.