The NFL Trade Deadline is complete and fantasy football is in a whirlwind! Fantasy analyst Joel Smyth breaks down some key deals — first up, the Colts’ trade of Josh Downs to Kansas City.
This trade is not only a win but life-saving for Josh Downs’ fantasy outlook (you can read the full trade terms here). The dynasty fantasy winner of the day if he resigns with the Chiefs, and he can finally be usable in redraft leagues!
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The Colts had injuries to Alec Pierce, traded away Michael Pittman Jr. and Downs was still limited to a sub-20% target share. Kansas City has a similar lack of pass-catchers as Indianapolis, but gives Downs more of a chance as one of the most talented receivers in a new offense. He should fit well on a team that has the lowest average depth of target in the NFL.
I’m worried for Rice once Downs is playing full snaps, but researching helped ease concerns a little bit. The negatives: Rice is a volume-dependent WR. He had been recently looking much improved compared to the first few weeks of the season. However, his style is very similar to Downs’, running over 50% of routes from the slot, and having over 70% of receiving fantasy points coming on throws under 10 air yards. The big positive here is the schedule, not in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs, but the game scripts ahead. In a five-game stretch, the Chiefs play the Bills, Rams, Bengals, Patriots and 49ers, all teams that can bump up the passing volume and scoring. Surprisingly, the Chiefs rank third in pass rate over expected, behind only the Packers and Bengals; they have just been consistently in the lead.
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That schedule might be more impactful for Mahomes than Downs, although it is a positive. The passing production for Mahomes over the past few years has been modest in fantasy, often relying on his rushing for his ceiling, and I’m not sure this massively changes anything. It’s a plus, but maybe a 1-PPG bump compared to having a different wideout in the game.
Keep it locked here for more of Joel’s trade reactions!
