Cleveland Browns: Which way would you go on the over/under for wins?

Posted by Admin July 19, 2026 NFL

The Cleveland Browns walked off the field on January 13, 2024, at Houston‘s NRG Stadium, disappointed but with the belief that better days were ahead.

Cleveland had just fallen to the Houston Texans in a Wild Card playoff game, the second playoff appearance in four years for the Browns. That offseason, head coach Kevin Stefanski picked up his second Coach of the Year Award, providing hope that after so many years wandering in the NFL’s wasteland, playoff appearances were going to be a frequent occurrence.

Everyone knows how that all worked out as the Browns won a total of eight games over the next two seasons, leading to Stefanski being fired and general manager Andrew Berry starting on the latest rebuilding project.

Those past two seasons stood out while reading Vic Tafur’s latest article at The Athletic, in which he predicts a “best bet” for each of the league’s 32 teams for the upcoming season.

As it relates to the Browns, Tafur is going with the over on Cleveland’s expected win total of 5.5 games from BetMGM, writing that:

I have no faith in Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders, but I like the rest of the offense, and there is still some defensive talent even after the Myles Garrett trade. The main reason to take the over is that the Browns are starting to stack great draft classes, and that’s rare in this league.

Tafur is on the right track in highlighting the improvement at some key positions on offense, as well as a defense that boasts talent, even if none of that talent is on the level of Garrett. (No shame in that.) And the Browns did reach five wins last season, although the final two were the result of the Pittsburgh Steelers caring more about Garrett than winning and the greatest six-point offensive explosion in NFL history.

But the six wins needed to hit the over also represent almost as many victories as the Browns had combined in the past two seasons. It does not seem impossible – which is why the casinos always win in Las Vegas – but there are still some major concerns about this team:

No one knows just how well the rebuilt offensive line will play until they actually get on the field together. If that goes poorly, the other areas of the offense that were improved will be for naught.
This is Todd Monken’s first time as a head coach. He may be Sean McVay or Matt LaFleur, but he could also be Bud Carson. Again, no one knows until they see him in action.

This is one of those times as a Browns fan when you hope to be wrong, but hitting the under on wins feels like a far better bet at the moment.

What do you think? Would you take the over on 5.5 wins or not? Let everyone know in the comments!